Revenue +21.5%. Financial Scorecard 3 of 4 strong — but Profit Quality is weak. At $946.11, COST is 14% below its high with about 13% upside to the $1,068.79 average target. Coverage: 75% Buy, 25% Hold. P/E 60.7x.
Costco runs a membership warehouse retail model, selling bulk groceries, electronics, apparel, and its Kirkland Signature private label across more than 800 warehouses globally. The company employs roughly 300,000 people and reported $226 billion in revenue for fiscal 2025 (restnvest, 10-K filed October 8, 2025). Return on equity (ROE — profit earned per dollar of shareholder equity) stands at 29.2%, used here as a proxy for capital efficiency; it shows how a low-margin, high-turnover model can still compound returns when scale and membership renewals are strong. The free cash flow margin (FCF margin — the share of revenue that converts to usable cash) is just 2.6% on a trailing-twelve-month basis, which is why restnvest flags Profit Quality as weak — thin margins are the warehouse model, with membership fees carrying most of the operating profit.
Changes over time: restnvest did not surface a Changes Over Time breakdown for Costco in this filing cycle, so no discrete five-year product shifts are recorded. The model — warehouse retail funded by membership fees — has been notably stable rather than marked by entries and exits.
Costco competes in global discount and warehouse retail against Walmart, Sam's Club, and BJ's, with room to grow through new warehouse openings, international expansion, and a still-small e-commerce channel. The membership model turns a low-margin retail base into a recurring, high-retention revenue stream.
Value comes from selling at razor-thin retail margins to drive membership renewals, where the real profit sits. Return on equity (ROE — profit earned per dollar of shareholder equity) stands at 29.2%, used here as a proxy for capital efficiency; it reflects how a low-margin, high-turnover model can still compound returns when scale and renewals are strong.
Y = price target. X = days remaining on call (negative = past expected hit window). Bubble size = Anachart Performance Score. Dashed vertical = the expected-hit boundary.
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Costco's reconciliation is the cleanest in this batch because all three lenses roughly agree. The business is strong — a 3-of-4 scorecard built on scalable growth, comfortable debt coverage, and compounding equity, with the lone weak signal, Profit Quality, simply reflecting the warehouse model's thin 2.6% free cash flow margin and reliance on membership fees rather than product markup. The analyst community is constructively positive at 74.7% Buy with no Sell ratings, and the average $1,068.79 target sits about 13% above the price. The stock, down 14% from its high, reads as a 'Recovery Entry' on restnvest's Price Discipline signal — trending up from a weaker zone rather than buying at a euphoric peak. What keeps this from being a simple story is the 60.7x P/E that flags Price Tag as risky: even after the pullback, the market is paying a steep multiple for a low-margin retailer, on the bet that membership renewals and steady expansion justify it. Timing is mixed at 2 of 3, with Trend in a 'Breakout attempt' the analysts' modest upside does not contradict. A long-term investor weighing Costco's financial health against the analyst consensus is weighing whether a genuinely durable compounder is worth a premium multiple when the profit margin itself never gets thick.
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