Revenue +6.5%. Earnings down 31% in the latest quarter. FY 2025 Financial Scorecard: 3 of 4 strong. P/E 16.52, Price/Book 1.65. DIS is 17% below its 52-week high and down 7% over the past year. 19 analysts: 90% Buy, 10% Hold, 0% Sell — average target $133.88 vs current $103.28. Implied upside +29.6%.
Disney sells into the global market for entertainment, sports, and experiences. Direct-to-consumer streaming through Disney+ (132M subscribers) and Hulu (64M subscribers) is the primary growth vector, with ESPN's streaming transition adding sports as a parallel lane. The theme parks and cruise business contributes durable cash flow that few competitors can match. International expansion in streaming and parks is positioned as the multi-decade tailwind, though near-term subscriber growth has slowed in mature markets.
Disney's value creation comes from monetising iconic IP across multiple channels — streaming, theatrical, parks, licensing, merchandise. The model produces a 12% profit margin and 11% return on equity. Free cash flow margin sits at 4%, reflecting heavy ongoing investment in streaming content and parks expansion. The dividend was reinstated after a pandemic suspension and now yields 1.5%, with a 20% payout ratio that leaves room for both buybacks and continued reinvestment. The most recent quarter showed earnings down 31% year over year, complicating the FY 2025 10-K's healthier picture.
Y = price target. X = days remaining on call (negative = past expected hit window). Bubble size = Anachart Performance Score. Dashed vertical = the expected-hit boundary.
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Disney presents a different shape from the other tickers in this set. The fundamental picture from the FY 2025 10-K is broadly positive — 3 of 4 Financial Scorecard signals strong, Scalable Growth, Cash-Backed Profits, Comfortable Coverage. The Valuation Scorecard is 2 of 4 sensible, with Price Discipline flagged Caution at 17% below the 52-week high and trending up from below the 200-day. P/E of 16.52 and Price/Book of 1.65 are unremarkable for a diversified media and experiences company. The 4% free cash flow margin is thin given heavy ongoing investment in streaming content and parks expansion. Two factors complicate the analyst case. First, the FY 2025 10-K was filed November 13, 2025, before the most recent quarterly report showed earnings down 31% YoY. The 'Scalable Growth' label captures the full-year picture, not the latest quarter. Second, the historical hit rate on DIS price targets is 57.9% — well below the 70%–95% range we see on other large caps in this set. The bullish camp argues the streaming business is finally a real earnings contributor, ESPN's direct-to-consumer transition opens a new revenue line, and parks remain the most durable cash flow in entertainment. The cautious view notes the stock is down 7% over the past year while the S&P returned 28%, and the recent quarterly miss may signal more pressure to come.
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