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Intel: up 415% in a year, yet the average analyst target sits 38% below the price

Intel's stock has risen more than 400% over the past year, but the business is unprofitable — a 0-of-4 Financial Scorecard, a negative net margin, and cash burn from its foundry buildout. The 32 analysts covering it are 79% Hold with an average target of $66.04, about 38% below the price. P/E is not meaningful on negative earnings. Current price: $111.52.

Educational content only — not financial advice. Always do your own research. Fundamentals from restnvest (SEC 10-K, 2026-01-23) · Analyst data from Anachart (2026-06-09)
semiconductorsfoundryartificial-intelligence
Three lenses on Intel. Are they aligned?
The business Weak
Financial health 0/4 · Revenue -0.5% · FCF margin -15.4% · ROIC -2.9%
The stock Caution
Valuation 2/4 · P/E N/A (earnings negative) · 16% below 52-week high · Timing 2/3
The analysts Bearish
32 analysts · 10.64% Buy · 78.72% Hold · 10.64% Sell · Avg target $66.04 (-40.8% upside)
A 415% rally that has run ahead of both the fundamentals and the analysts
Intel's stock has soared on turnaround hopes, but neither the business nor the analyst community has followed. The Financial Scorecard is 0 of 4 strong, the company is unprofitable and burning cash, and the average analyst target of $66.04 sits about 38% below the price — with 79% Hold and as many Sells as Buys. The price is betting on a foundry and AI recovery that the current numbers and the consensus do not yet reflect.
The case the market is making
What the business fundamentals say
Weak

Changes over time: restnvest does not surface a Changes Over Time breakdown for Intel in this period, so no discontinued, sustained, evolved, or new-product items are available from the 10-K analysis — the counts default to zero.

From the 10-K filing · 2026-01-23
Investment thesis — INTC
Strong emphasis
Moderate
Strategic themes
Artificial IntelligenceCloud Computing5G TechnologyInternet of Things (IoT)
Competitive moats
Brand PowerPatentsScale Economies
Market opportunity

Intel competes in the largest semiconductor markets — PC and data-center processors — while attempting to build a foundry business that would manufacture chips for external customers. The opportunity is enormous if Intel can regain manufacturing leadership in advanced process nodes and AI accelerators, but it faces entrenched competition from AMD, NVIDIA, and the established foundry leaders.

Value creation

Intel's turnaround thesis rests on a heavy reinvestment cycle — building leading-edge fabs and a foundry business that have yet to produce returns. Trailing twelve-month results show the strain: a negative 5.9% net margin, a net loss, and negative free cash flow as capital spending outruns operating cash generation. The balance sheet carries meaningful cash, but until the manufacturing investments pay off, profitability and returns on capital remain negative — which is why all four Financial Scorecard signals fall short of strong.

Extracted from SEC 10-K. Full thesis on restnvest →
Stage 2 · Financial performance
Financial scorecard
0 of 4 strong
Growth quality
Cost Cutting
Profit quality
Weak Profit Quality
Debt safety
Conservative Balance Sheet
Owner value quality
Value Pressure
Rev growth -0.5% · FCF margin -15.4% · ROIC -2.9%
Bottom line: Intel's stock is up more than 400% over the past year as investors bet on a foundry and AI-driven turnaround, supported by a conservative balance sheet with meaningful cash and timing signals that are 2 of 3 supportive with a strengthening trend.
versus
The case for caution
What the stock price and analysts say
Caution
Stage 3 · Valuation
Valuation scorecard
2 of 4 sensible
✗ Price discipline
Neutral Entry — 16% below high, above 200-day trend
✓ Price tag
Sensible — valued on assets and sales, not earnings
✗ Capital discipline
Risky
✓ Doubling potential
Sensible
Stage 4 · Timing
Timing signals
2 of 3 supportive
Trend
Strengthening Structure
Momentum
Aligned
Stretch
Cooling Off
Trend: Both highs and lows are improving — structure is supportive
Momentum: Short-term and long-term pressure are both improving, with the gap narrowing
Stretch: RSI is overbought with selling pressure cooling
Analyst conviction · Anachart · 2026-06-09
Where do analysts stand — and how much runway is left?

Y = price target. X = days remaining on call (negative = past expected hit window). Bubble size = Anachart Performance Score. Dashed vertical = the expected-hit boundary.

Buy
Hold
Sell
Upper-left · Fading signal
High target, window closing.
Upper-right · Most interesting
Bold call, plenty of runway.
Lower-left · Stale or wrong
Modest target, window closed.
Lower-right · Cautious coverage
Modest target, time left.

Chart shows 5 of 32 covering analysts. See all on Anachart →

Bottom line: The Financial Scorecard is 0 of 4 strong, Intel is unprofitable with a negative net margin and negative free cash flow, and the average analyst target sits about 38% below the price — with 79% of analysts on Hold and as many Sells as Buys.

The reconciliation

Intel is the clearest divergence in this set, because the price has moved in the opposite direction from both the fundamentals and the analyst consensus. Over the past year the stock has risen more than 400%, from a low near $19 to a high above $132, on hopes that Intel's foundry strategy and AI ambitions will restore its manufacturing leadership. The reported business, however, has not turned: revenue is roughly flat year over year, the net margin is negative at -5.9%, the company posted a net loss, and free cash flow is negative as fab construction outruns operating cash. restnvest's scorecard captures that directly with a 0-of-4 reading and Weak Profit Quality. The analyst community is just as skeptical. The average price target of $66.04 sits about 38% below the recent price, 79% of analysts rate the stock Hold, and there are as many Sells as Buys. The one area pointing up is timing: the scorecard's weakness coexists with a strengthening price trend and aligned momentum, 2 of 3 supportive, which is another way of describing the rally itself. The reconciliation is unusually stark. This is not a debate about how much upside remains — it is a gap between a market pricing a turnaround and a fundamental record plus an analyst consensus that both say the turnaround has not yet arrived. The stock is valued on what Intel might become; the scorecard and the targets describe what it is reporting today.

Dive deeper into the fundamentals

See Intel's full 6-stage analysis on restnvest →
Sources
Fundamentals: restnvest — SEC 10-K, 2026-01-23. | Analysts: Anachart — 2026-06-09.
This is educational content only — not financial advice.