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How do professionals look at JNJ stock?

Johnson & Johnson: a strengthening business near record highs, with almost no upside left to consensus

A 3-of-4 Financial Scorecard, 9.9% quarterly revenue growth and the best timing signals in this group (2-of-3). But the stock is just 7% below its high, valuation scores 1-of-4 sensible, and 21 analysts' $236.21 average target sits under 1% above the price, with 52% rating it only Hold. Current price: $234.20.

Educational content only — not financial advice. Always do your own research. Fundamentals from restnvest (SEC 10-K, 2026-02-11) · Analyst data from Anachart (2026-04-15)
pharmamedtechdividend-king
Three lenses on Johnson & Johnson. Are they aligned?
The business Strong
Financial health 3/4 · Revenue +9.9% · FCF margin 13% · ROIC 26.4%
The stock Caution
Valuation 1/4 · P/E 26.6x · 7% below 52-week high · Timing 2/3
The analysts Lukewarm
21 analysts · 48.33% Buy · 51.67% Hold · 0% Sell · Avg target $236.21 (+0.9% upside)
A strengthening business with supportive timing — and a price that has caught up to a Hold-leaning Street
J&J scores 3-of-4 on fundamentals and 2-of-3 on timing, the strongest combination in this group. But the stock is 7% below its high, valuation scores 1-of-4 sensible, and across 21 firms coverage tilts to Hold (52%) over Buy (48%). The $236.21 average target implies under 1% upside — the business is strong, but the price has already caught up.
The case for the business
What the business fundamentals say
Strong

Changes over time: 1 discontinued (the Consumer Health business, separated as Kenvue in August 2023), 2 New & Sustained, 2 Evolved, 3 New Products — a portfolio reshaped into a focused Innovative Medicine and MedTech company.

From the 10-K filing · 2026-02-11
Investment thesis — JNJ
Strong emphasis
Moderate
Strategic themes
Drug DevelopmentMedical TechnologyGlobal ExpansionSustainability
Competitive moats
PatentsBrand PowerScale Economies
Market opportunity

J&J addresses large, durable healthcare markets across oncology, immunology, neuroscience and medical technology, with revenue diversified across hundreds of products and geographies. Growth drivers such as DARZALEX, TREMFYA and RYBREVANT are offset by known patent cliffs — DARZALEX exclusivity expiring in 2029 and biosimilar competition for STELARA — making pipeline execution the central question.

Value creation

J&J creates value through patent-protected innovation funded by deep, diversified cash flows: a 13.0% free-cash-flow margin and a 26.4% return on equity support both reinvestment and one of the market's longest dividend-growth records. The moat rests on patents, brand and scale, but value compounding depends on replacing maturing blockbusters faster than they erode. Three of four Financial Scorecard signals are rated strong.

Extracted from SEC 10-K. Full thesis on restnvest →
Stage 2 · Financial performance
Financial scorecard
3 of 4 strong
Growth quality
Scalable Growth
Profit quality
Cash-Backed Profits
Debt safety
Comfortable Coverage
Owner value quality
High Returns, Limited Reinvestment
Rev growth +9.9% · FCF margin 13% · ROIC 26.4%
Bottom line: A 3-of-4 scorecard, 9.9% revenue growth, a 26.4% return on equity and the best timing signals in this group — a diversified healthcare leader with supportive technical structure.
versus
The case for caution
What the stock price and analysts say
Caution
Stage 3 · Valuation
Valuation scorecard
1 of 4 sensible
✗ Price discipline
Euphoric Entry — 7% below high, above 200-day trend
✗ Price tag
Caution — P/E 26.6x
✓ Capital discipline
Sensible
✗ Doubling potential
Caution
Stage 4 · Timing
Timing signals
2 of 3 supportive
Trend
Strengthening Structure
Momentum
Aligned
Stretch
Cooling Off
Trend: Both highs and lows are improving — structure is supportive
Momentum: Short-term and long-term pressure are both improving, with the gap narrowing
Stretch: RSI balanced with selling pressure cooling
Analyst conviction · Anachart · 2026-04-15
Where do analysts stand — and how much runway is left?

Y = price target. X = days remaining on call (negative = past expected hit window). Bubble size = Anachart Performance Score. Dashed vertical = the expected-hit boundary.

Buy
Hold
Sell
Upper-left · Fading signal
High target, window closing.
Upper-right · Most interesting
Bold call, plenty of runway.
Lower-left · Stale or wrong
Modest target, window closed.
Lower-right · Cautious coverage
Modest target, time left.

Chart shows 5 of 21 covering analysts. See all on Anachart →

Bottom line: The stock is 7% below its high with valuation 1-of-4 sensible, 52% of analysts rate it only Hold, and the $236.21 average target sits under 1% above the price — the upside to consensus is essentially gone.

The reconciliation

Johnson & Johnson is the case where a good business and good timing have largely been paid for. Restnvest scores fundamentals 3-of-4 — scalable growth, cash-backed profits and comfortable coverage, with 9.9% quarterly revenue growth, a 13.0% free-cash-flow margin and a 26.4% return on equity — and timing 2-of-3, the strongest reading in this group. The friction is valuation and consensus. The stock is 7% below its high and above its 200-day trend, valuation scores just 1-of-4 sensible, and across 21 analysts coverage tilts to Hold (51.67%) over Buy (48.33%). The price-target-met ratio is high at 93.96%, but the $236.21 average target implies under 1% upside, and the most accurate names — Barclays' Miksic at $255, Stifel's Wise at $250 — carry Hold ratings. The bullish targets exist (Citi at $274, Morgan Stanley at $267), but a long-term investor here is weighing a durable, well-timed compounder against the reality that the average professional sees the stock as roughly fairly valued today, with patent cliffs (DARZALEX in 2029, STELARA biosimilars) as the longer-term swing factor. One data note: Anachart's headline showed a stray dollar upside figure that did not reconcile with its own average target; the sub-1% figure used here is the internally consistent upside to the $236.21 average.

Sources
Fundamentals: restnvest — SEC 10-K, 2026-02-11. | Analysts: Anachart — 2026-04-15.
This is educational content only — not financial advice.