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How do professionals look at MCD stock?

McDonald's: a 3-of-4 franchise compounder in a price slump, with no analyst Sells

A 3-of-4 financial scorecard pairs a 44% operating margin and compounding equity with a stock 22% below its high and drifting lower. At 22x earnings, 24 analysts see about 32% upside to a $351.90 average target — 57% Buy, 43% Hold, no Sells. Current price: $267.18.

Educational content only — not financial advice. Always do your own research. Fundamentals from restnvest (SEC 10-K, 2026-02-24) · Analyst data from Anachart (2026-06-29)
restaurantsdividendfranchise
Three lenses on McDonald's. Are they aligned?
The business Strong
Financial health 3/4 · Revenue +9.4% · FCF margin 21.7% · ROIC 13.6%
The stock Caution
Valuation 1/4 · P/E 22.2x · 21.8% below 52-week high · Timing 0/3
The analysts Bullish
24 analysts · 56.52% Buy · 43.48% Hold · 0% Sell · Avg target $351.90 (+31.7% upside)
A high-quality franchise compounder in a price slump, with a buy-leaning Street and no Sells
McDonald's pairs a franchise model restnvest scores 3 of 4 strong — scalable growth, cash-backed profits, compounding equity, a 44% operating margin — with a stock 22% below its high and drifting lower, leaving valuation 1 of 4 sensible and timing 0 of 3 supportive. The analyst lens is supportive: across 24 firms, 57% Buy, 43% Hold and no Sells, a 90% hit ratio, and a $351.90 average target implying about 32% upside. The most recent action was a JPMorgan Buy at $305.
The case for the franchise
What the business fundamentals say
Strong

Changes over time: 1 discontinued (Dynamic Yield, sold April 2022, last 2023), 2 New & Sustained, 2 Evolved, 0 New Products — a steady portfolio centered on the franchise model, technology and value.

From the 10-K filing · 2026-02-24
Investment thesis — MCD
Strong emphasis
Moderate
Strategic themes
Franchising ModelCommunity EngagementOperational Excellence
Competitive moats
Brand PowerScale EconomiesFranchisee Relationships
Market opportunity

McDonald's operates more than 45,000 restaurants across over 100 countries, with growth resting on net unit expansion — particularly internationally — digital, delivery and loyalty, and value menus to defend traffic. The challenge framed in the filing is sustaining comparable-sales growth as cost-conscious consumers trade down and competition for the value diner intensifies.

Value creation

The franchise model is the engine. Roughly 95% of restaurants are run by franchisees, so McDonald's collects rent and royalties at a 44% operating margin and a 32% net margin, converting revenue to a 21.7% free-cash-flow margin. restnvest scores the financial scorecard 3 of 4 strong, with scalable growth, cash-backed profits and compounding equity; return on assets of 13.6% stands in as the return proxy because shareholder equity is negative after years of buybacks and dividends.

Extracted from SEC 10-K. Full thesis on restnvest →
Stage 2 · Financial performance
Financial scorecard
3 of 4 strong
Growth quality
Scalable Growth
Profit quality
Cash-Backed Profits
Debt safety
Leverage With Support
Owner value quality
Compounding Equity
Rev growth +9.4% · FCF margin 21.7% · ROIC 13.6%
Bottom line: A 3-of-4 scorecard with scalable growth, cash-backed profits and compounding equity, a 44% operating margin and a 22x multiple, with no analyst Sells and about 32% upside to target.
versus
The case for caution
What the stock price and analysts say
Caution
Stage 3 · Valuation
Valuation scorecard
1 of 4 sensible
✗ Price discipline
Risky Entry — 22% below high, drifting lower
✗ Price tag
Risky — P/E 22x
✓ Capital discipline
Sensible
✗ Doubling potential
Risky
Stage 4 · Timing
Timing signals
0 of 3 supportive
Trend
Unresolved
Momentum
Pressure building
Stretch
Still sliding
Trend: Highs are mixed and lows weakening — no clear direction yet
Momentum: Short-term and long-term pressure both weakening, with the gap widening
Stretch: RSI balanced but selling pressure heating — still under pressure
Analyst conviction · Anachart · 2026-06-29
Where do analysts stand — and how much runway is left?

Y = price target. X = days remaining on call (negative = past expected hit window). Bubble size = Anachart Performance Score. Dashed vertical = the expected-hit boundary.

Buy
Hold
Sell
Upper-left · Fading signal
High target, window closing.
Upper-right · Most interesting
Bold call, plenty of runway.
Lower-left · Stale or wrong
Modest target, window closed.
Lower-right · Cautious coverage
Modest target, time left.

Chart shows 5 of 24 covering analysts. See all on Anachart →

Bottom line: The stock is 22% below its high and drifting lower, restnvest scores timing 0 of 3 supportive, and debt safety is only mixed given a negative book equity after buybacks.

The reconciliation

McDonald's sets a high-quality franchise against a weak tape. The supportive side is the business: restnvest scores the financial scorecard 3 of 4 strong — scalable growth, cash-backed profits and compounding equity — built on a model where roughly 95% of restaurants are franchised, producing a 44% operating margin, a 32% net margin and a 21.7% free-cash-flow margin. The cautious side is price and timing: the stock is 22% below its high and drifting lower, so restnvest's valuation lens scores 1 of 4 sensible and timing 0 of 3 supportive, with debt safety only mixed because shareholder equity is negative after sustained buybacks and dividends (return on assets of 13.6% stands in as the return proxy). The analyst lens is the most uniformly positive here — across 24 firms, 56.52% Buy, 43.48% Hold and zero Sell, a 90.34% hit ratio, and the latest action a JPMorgan Buy at $305. The $351.90 average target implies about 32% upside, though the range is wide ($300 to $552). A long-term investor weighs a durable, cash-generative franchise trading at a reasonable 22x earnings against weak near-term momentum and the question of whether comparable sales can reaccelerate as value-seeking diners trade down. Two data notes: revenue growth is the latest quarterly figure (9.4% year over year), as a clean annual figure was not available on the source page; and analyst performance scores use a hit-ratio-based 0-10 proxy applied consistently across this group.

Sources
Fundamentals: restnvest — SEC 10-K, 2026-02-24. | Analysts: Anachart — 2026-06-29.
This is educational content only — not financial advice.