A 3-of-4 financial scorecard pairs a 44% operating margin and compounding equity with a stock 22% below its high and drifting lower. At 22x earnings, 24 analysts see about 32% upside to a $351.90 average target — 57% Buy, 43% Hold, no Sells. Current price: $267.18.
Changes over time: 1 discontinued (Dynamic Yield, sold April 2022, last 2023), 2 New & Sustained, 2 Evolved, 0 New Products — a steady portfolio centered on the franchise model, technology and value.
McDonald's operates more than 45,000 restaurants across over 100 countries, with growth resting on net unit expansion — particularly internationally — digital, delivery and loyalty, and value menus to defend traffic. The challenge framed in the filing is sustaining comparable-sales growth as cost-conscious consumers trade down and competition for the value diner intensifies.
The franchise model is the engine. Roughly 95% of restaurants are run by franchisees, so McDonald's collects rent and royalties at a 44% operating margin and a 32% net margin, converting revenue to a 21.7% free-cash-flow margin. restnvest scores the financial scorecard 3 of 4 strong, with scalable growth, cash-backed profits and compounding equity; return on assets of 13.6% stands in as the return proxy because shareholder equity is negative after years of buybacks and dividends.
Y = price target. X = days remaining on call (negative = past expected hit window). Bubble size = Anachart Performance Score. Dashed vertical = the expected-hit boundary.
Chart shows 5 of 24 covering analysts. See all on Anachart →
McDonald's sets a high-quality franchise against a weak tape. The supportive side is the business: restnvest scores the financial scorecard 3 of 4 strong — scalable growth, cash-backed profits and compounding equity — built on a model where roughly 95% of restaurants are franchised, producing a 44% operating margin, a 32% net margin and a 21.7% free-cash-flow margin. The cautious side is price and timing: the stock is 22% below its high and drifting lower, so restnvest's valuation lens scores 1 of 4 sensible and timing 0 of 3 supportive, with debt safety only mixed because shareholder equity is negative after sustained buybacks and dividends (return on assets of 13.6% stands in as the return proxy). The analyst lens is the most uniformly positive here — across 24 firms, 56.52% Buy, 43.48% Hold and zero Sell, a 90.34% hit ratio, and the latest action a JPMorgan Buy at $305. The $351.90 average target implies about 32% upside, though the range is wide ($300 to $552). A long-term investor weighs a durable, cash-generative franchise trading at a reasonable 22x earnings against weak near-term momentum and the question of whether comparable sales can reaccelerate as value-seeking diners trade down. Two data notes: revenue growth is the latest quarterly figure (9.4% year over year), as a clean annual figure was not available on the source page; and analyst performance scores use a hit-ratio-based 0-10 proxy applied consistently across this group.
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