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How do professionals look at NKE stock?

Nike: 44% off its high with earnings still falling — and analysts split between turnaround and trap

A 1-of-4 Financial Scorecard, flat revenue and a 2.8% free-cash-flow margin describe a brand in reset. The stock is 45% below its 52-week high, yet 26 analysts see a $63 average target — about 43% above the price — while 43% of them rate it only Hold. Current price: $44.19.

Educational content only — not financial advice. Always do your own research. Fundamentals from restnvest (SEC 10-K, 2025-07-17) · Analyst data from Anachart (2026-06-10)
footwear-apparelconsumer-brandturnaround
Three lenses on Nike. Are they aligned?
The business Weak
Financial health 1/4 · Revenue +0.1% · FCF margin 2.8% · ROIC 16%
The stock Caution
Valuation 1/4 · P/E 29.9x · 44.9% below 52-week high · Timing 0/3
The analysts Divided
26 analysts · 56.25% Buy · 42.71% Hold · 1.04% Sell · Avg target $63.00 (+42.6% upside)
A weak scorecard and a deep drawdown, met by coverage split almost evenly between Buy and Hold
Nike's fundamentals score just 1-of-4 — declining revenue and earnings, a 2.8% free-cash-flow margin — and the stock sits 45% below its high. Analysts are split rather than bullish: 56% Buy against 43% Hold, with several recent target cuts. The $63 average target implies about 43% upside, but the debate is whether this is a bottom or a value trap.
The case for the rebound
What the business fundamentals say
Weak

Changes over time: 1 discontinued (licensed college and pro team-logo apparel, last referenced 2024), 2 New & Sustained, 2 Evolved, 1 New Product — a portfolio narrowing toward proprietary branding across footwear, apparel, Jordan and Converse.

From the 10-K filing · 2025-07-17
Investment thesis — NKE
Strong emphasis
Moderate
Strategic themes
Digital TransformationSustainabilityBrand Expansion
Competitive moats
Brand PowerScale Economies
Market opportunity

Nike's brand still leads global sport, and management is steering toward full-price selling, refreshed product and a rebuilt wholesale and digital mix. But the recent filings describe a market where the company is working through excess inventory, softer demand and Greater China weakness rather than expanding into open space.

Value creation

Nike's value engine is its brand and scale, but the most recent results show that engine running below its historical efficiency: a 2.8% free-cash-flow margin and a 16.0% return on equity are well below the company's own past levels. Returns can rebuild if pricing power and channel health recover, but the current scorecard — 1 of 4 strong — reflects a business in repair, not in compounding mode.

Extracted from SEC 10-K. Full thesis on restnvest →
Stage 2 · Financial performance
Financial scorecard
1 of 4 strong
Growth quality
Declining
Profit quality
Weak Profit Quality
Debt safety
Comfortable Coverage
Owner value quality
High Returns, Limited Reinvestment
Rev growth +0.1% · FCF margin 2.8% · ROIC 16%
Bottom line: The brand still leads global sport, the balance sheet is comfortable, and at 45% below its high the $63 average target implies roughly 43% upside if the turnaround takes hold.
versus
The case for caution
What the stock price and analysts say
Caution
Stage 3 · Valuation
Valuation scorecard
1 of 4 sensible
✗ Price discipline
Risky Entry — 45% below high, drifting lower
✗ Price tag
Risky — P/E 29.9x
✓ Capital discipline
Sensible
✗ Doubling potential
Risky
Stage 4 · Timing
Timing signals
0 of 3 supportive
Trend
Unresolved
Momentum
Mixed
Stretch
Neutral
Trend: Highs weakening and lows mixed — no clear direction yet
Momentum: Short-term and long-term pressure are both flat, with the gap narrowing
Stretch: RSI balanced with selling pressure flat
Analyst conviction · Anachart · 2026-06-10
Where do analysts stand — and how much runway is left?

Y = price target. X = days remaining on call (negative = past expected hit window). Bubble size = Anachart Performance Score. Dashed vertical = the expected-hit boundary.

Buy
Hold
Sell
Upper-left · Fading signal
High target, window closing.
Upper-right · Most interesting
Bold call, plenty of runway.
Lower-left · Stale or wrong
Modest target, window closed.
Lower-right · Cautious coverage
Modest target, time left.

Chart shows 5 of 26 covering analysts. See all on Anachart →

Bottom line: Revenue and earnings are both declining, the free-cash-flow margin has fallen to 2.8%, and 43% of analysts rate it only Hold — the low price reflects problems the fundamentals confirm.

The reconciliation

Nike is where business quality and price tell genuinely conflicting stories. Restnvest scores the fundamentals just 1-of-4: revenue and earnings are both declining, the free-cash-flow margin has fallen to 2.8% and return on equity to 16.0% — well below Nike's historical form — even as the balance sheet stays comfortable. The stock reflects that, sitting 45% below its high and drifting under its 200-day trend, with valuation scored 1-of-4 sensible and timing 1-of-3 supportive. Analysts are split rather than bullish: 56.25% Buy but 42.71% Hold across 26 firms, a modest 60.59% historical hit ratio, and a wave of recent target cuts. The $63 average target implies roughly 43% upside, but the spread runs from $23 to $115 — the widest in this group. A long-term investor is weighing a damaged-but-iconic brand at a low price against a scorecard that confirms the damage is real and a Street that is far from convinced the floor is in.

Dive deeper into the fundamentals

See Nike's full 6-stage analysis on restnvest →
Sources
Fundamentals: restnvest — SEC 10-K, 2025-07-17. | Analysts: Anachart — 2026-06-10.
This is educational content only — not financial advice.