A 1-of-4 Financial Scorecard, flat revenue and a 2.8% free-cash-flow margin describe a brand in reset. The stock is 45% below its 52-week high, yet 26 analysts see a $63 average target — about 43% above the price — while 43% of them rate it only Hold. Current price: $44.19.
Changes over time: 1 discontinued (licensed college and pro team-logo apparel, last referenced 2024), 2 New & Sustained, 2 Evolved, 1 New Product — a portfolio narrowing toward proprietary branding across footwear, apparel, Jordan and Converse.
Nike's brand still leads global sport, and management is steering toward full-price selling, refreshed product and a rebuilt wholesale and digital mix. But the recent filings describe a market where the company is working through excess inventory, softer demand and Greater China weakness rather than expanding into open space.
Nike's value engine is its brand and scale, but the most recent results show that engine running below its historical efficiency: a 2.8% free-cash-flow margin and a 16.0% return on equity are well below the company's own past levels. Returns can rebuild if pricing power and channel health recover, but the current scorecard — 1 of 4 strong — reflects a business in repair, not in compounding mode.
Y = price target. X = days remaining on call (negative = past expected hit window). Bubble size = Anachart Performance Score. Dashed vertical = the expected-hit boundary.
Chart shows 5 of 26 covering analysts. See all on Anachart →
Nike is where business quality and price tell genuinely conflicting stories. Restnvest scores the fundamentals just 1-of-4: revenue and earnings are both declining, the free-cash-flow margin has fallen to 2.8% and return on equity to 16.0% — well below Nike's historical form — even as the balance sheet stays comfortable. The stock reflects that, sitting 45% below its high and drifting under its 200-day trend, with valuation scored 1-of-4 sensible and timing 1-of-3 supportive. Analysts are split rather than bullish: 56.25% Buy but 42.71% Hold across 26 firms, a modest 60.59% historical hit ratio, and a wave of recent target cuts. The $63 average target implies roughly 43% upside, but the spread runs from $23 to $115 — the widest in this group. A long-term investor is weighing a damaged-but-iconic brand at a low price against a scorecard that confirms the damage is real and a Street that is far from convinced the floor is in.
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