A 1-of-4 financial scorecard pairs a strong balance sheet with declining growth, weak profit quality and a ~4% operating margin. The stock trades near 390x earnings, 15% below its high, and 27 analysts are split — 65% Buy, 18% Sell, with targets spanning $25 to $600 around a $414.62 average. Current price: $425.30.
Changes over time: 1 discontinued (solar PPA arrangements, last 2025), 2 New & Sustained, 3 Evolved, 2 New Products — a portfolio reweighting from solar financing toward AI, autonomy and energy storage.
Tesla's valuation rests less on today's car sales than on optionality — autonomy and robotaxi, a fast-growing energy-storage business, and AI. The challenge framed in the filing is the core auto business: revenue and margins have compressed amid price cuts, intensifying EV competition and softer demand, so the bull case leans on future products and services rather than the current vehicle line.
The near-term financials are the weak point. restnvest scores the financial scorecard 1 of 4 strong: growth quality is declining and profit quality weak, with a trailing operating margin near 4% and a 4.9% return on equity as automotive pricing pressure bites. Debt safety is the lone strong signal, backed by roughly $45B of cash against modest debt. Value creation now depends almost entirely on converting AI, autonomy and energy investments into profit before the auto business's margin compression defines the story.
Y = price target. X = days remaining on call (negative = past expected hit window). Bubble size = Anachart Performance Score. Dashed vertical = the expected-hit boundary.
Chart shows 5 of 27 covering analysts. See all on Anachart →
Tesla pits an extreme, optionality-driven valuation against a weak near-term scorecard. The cautious side is concrete: restnvest scores the financial scorecard 1 of 4 strong, with growth quality declining and profit quality weak as vehicle pricing pressure compresses a trailing operating margin to about 4% and return on equity to 4.9%; valuation scores 0 of 4 sensible with the price tag rated risky near 390x earnings. The supportive side is mostly forward-looking: debt safety is strong, backed by roughly $45B of cash against modest debt, the energy-storage business is scaling, and the bull case rests on autonomy, robotaxi and AI rather than today's income statement. The analyst lens is the most polarized in this group — across 27 firms, 65.14% Buy, 16.51% Hold and 18.35% Sell, a 76.23% hit ratio, and price targets that span $24.86 to $600, capturing a genuine disagreement about what Tesla is. The most recent action was a GLJ Sell at $24.86, against a high target of $600. A long-term investor weighs a cash-rich brand with real optionality against a business whose current profitability does not remotely support its multiple, and a professional consensus that cannot agree on the outcome. Two data notes: revenue growth is the latest quarterly figure (15.8% year over year), while restnvest's growth signal reflects the annual decline in the fiscal-2025 10-K; and analyst performance scores use a hit-ratio-based 0-10 proxy applied consistently across this group.
Dive deeper into the fundamentals
See Tesla's full 6-stage analysis on restnvest →See the full analyst picture
See all 27 analyst price targets on Anachart →